Solar Eclipse after 103 years

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Solar Eclipse after 103 years

Palmen, KEV (Karl)
Dear Calendar People

Yesterday, I suggested that Charles Moyer look at the solar eclipse of 29 March 1903 with respect to the Ogam wheel. Then last night I looked at my Moonwise lunar calendar and found out that next year also has a solar eclipse on 29 March.

With LCEF I get
Lunar Calendars and Eclipse Finder 5.79
http://www.hermetic.ch/lcef/lcef.htm

1903-03-29 CE 01:35 (local = GMT)
JC=1903-03-16  GLC=5-0441-13-02  MP=100-49-01-01 CJD=2,416,203.0662  AJD=2,416,202.5662
Dark moon, illum. =  0.0%, lunat. and age = [-1197] 0 days, 0 hrs, 9 mins (0.0%).
Central annular solar eclipse, lunation number = -1197, saros number = 118.

2006-03-29 CE 10:12 (local = GMT)
JC=2006-03-16  GLC=5-0545-03-01  MP=102-31-13-31  CJD=2,453,824.4247  AJD=2,453,823.9247
Dark moon, illum. =  0.0%, lunat. and age = [76] 29 days, 9 hrs, 40 mins (100.0%).
Central total solar eclipse, lunation number = 77, saros number = 139.

The 103 year interval has 37621.3585 days and 1274 lunations.


Some calendar people may know that I have mentioned a 103-year cycle quite a few times.

I recall that the solar 103-year cycle of 25 leap years has 37620 days, which has many divisors and a mean year of 365.242718... days. Two of these 103-year cycles equal 209 cycles of 360 days.

I also recall that if a lunisolar calendar has regular years that have 12 months of 354 days or 13 months of 384 days and abundant years that have one day more than a regular year. Then 20 abundant years every 103 years is a very good ratio. The 103 year has 1274 lunar months, except for a few times when it has 1273 lunar months.
If the 103 year cycle of such a calendar does have 1274 lunar months then it has
103*354+(1274-12*103)*30+20=37622 days.


I didn't know it was an eclipse cycle. It is not listed in
http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/calendar/eclipsecycles.htm
but is probably not a good eclipse cycle that would survive quite a few repetitions.

It is equal to a Unidos and two Metonic cycles and so is made up of 21 Inex less 28 Saros cycles and so divides into seven equal parts of 3 Inex less 4 Saros cycles. Each of these sevenths is equal to 182 lunar months of 31 eclipse seasons or 3 Octons and 1 Hepton.

So the 103/7 year cycle produces the following eclipses from 1903 to 2006

1903-03-29 CE 01:35 (local = GMT)
JC=1903-03-16  GLC=5-0441-13-02  MP=100-49-01-01 CJD=2,416,203.0662  AJD=2,416,202.5662
Central annular solar eclipse, lunation number = -1197, saros number = 118.

1917-12-14 CE 09:27 (local = GMT)
JC=1917-12-01  GLC=5-0456-10-01  MP=101-03-10-02  CJD=2,421,577.3938  AJD=2,421,576.8938
Central annular solar eclipse, lunation number = -1015, saros number = 121.

1932-08-31 CE 20:04 (local = GMT)
JC=1932-08-18  GLC=5-0471-06-30  MP=101-18-06-01  CJD=2,426,951.8358  AJD=2,426,951.3358
Central total solar eclipse, lunation number = -833, saros number = 124.

1947-05-20 CE 13:47 (local = GMT)
JC=1947-05-07  GLC=5-0486-04-01  MP=101-33-03-01  CJD=2,432,326.5741  AJD=2,432,326.0741
Central total solar eclipse, lunation number = -651, saros number = 127.

1962-02-05 CE 00:12 (local = GMT)
JC=1962-01-23  GLC=5-0500-12-03  MP=101-47-12-02  CJD=2,437,701.0083  AJD=2,437,700.5083
Central total solar eclipse, lunation number = -469, saros number = 130.

1976-10-23 CE 05:13 (local = GMT)
JC=1976-10-10  GLC=5-0515-09-02  MP=102-02-08-01  CJD=2,443,075.2175  AJD=2,443,074.7175
Central total solar eclipse, lunation number = -287, saros number = 133.

1991-07-11 CE 19:06 (local = GMT)
JC=1991-06-28  GLC=5-0530-06-01  MP=102-17-05-01  CJD=2,448,449.7960  AJD=2,448,449.2960
Central total solar eclipse, lunation number = -105, saros number = 136.

2006-03-29 CE 10:12 (local = GMT)
JC=2006-03-16  GLC=5-0545-03-01  MP=102-31-13-31  CJD=2,453,824.4247  AJD=2,453,823.9247
Central total solar eclipse, lunation number = 77, saros number = 139.


Karl

07(15(09
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Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years

Gent van R.H.
Karl Palmen wrote:

> I didn't know it was an eclipse cycle. It is not listed in
> http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/calendar/eclipsecycles.htm
> but is probably not a good eclipse cycle that would survive
> quite a few repetitions.

As an eclipse cycle the 103-year cycle performs rather poorly.

You can verify from my eclipse-cycle calculator that it fails after 3
eclipses.

=======================================================
* Robert H. van Gent                                  *
* E-mail: [hidden email]                     *
* Homepage: http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/homepage.htm *
=======================================================
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Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years

Palmen, KEV (Karl)
In reply to this post by Palmen, KEV (Karl)
Dear Robert and Calendar People

I checked it with the 103/7 year cycle and find that it typically lasts for 18 cycles for 250 years.

Karl

07(15(09

-----Original Message-----
From: East Carolina University Calendar discussion List
[mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf Of Gent van R.H.
Sent: 09 December 2005 14:54
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years


Karl Palmen wrote:

> I didn't know it was an eclipse cycle. It is not listed in
> http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/calendar/eclipsecycles.htm
> but is probably not a good eclipse cycle that would survive
> quite a few repetitions.

As an eclipse cycle the 103-year cycle performs rather poorly.

You can verify from my eclipse-cycle calculator that it fails after 3
eclipses.

=======================================================
* Robert H. van Gent                                  *
* E-mail: [hidden email]                     *
* Homepage: http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/homepage.htm *
=======================================================
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Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years

Gent van R.H.
In reply to this post by Palmen, KEV (Karl)
Karl Palmen wrote:

> I checked it with the 103/7 year cycle and find that it
> typically lasts for 18 cycles for 250 years.

That is counting the sub-cycles, I assume. The main cycle will only last 206
years (at the most).

=======================================================
* Robert H. van Gent                                  *
* E-mail: [hidden email]                     *
* Homepage: http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/homepage.htm *
=======================================================
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Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years

Palmen, KEV (Karl)
In reply to this post by Palmen, KEV (Karl)
Dear Robert and Calendar People

18*103/7 = 264.857... which is somewhat more than 250 years. This suggests that Robert's calculator does not simply multiply the cycle length by the whole number of cycles in a lifetime to get the cycle life time.

-----Original Message-----
From: East Carolina University Calendar discussion List
[mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf Of Gent van R.H.
Sent: 09 December 2005 15:39
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years


Karl Palmen wrote:

> I checked it with the 103/7 year cycle and find that it
> typically lasts for 18 cycles for 250 years.

That is counting the sub-cycles, I assume. The main cycle will only last 206
years (at the most).

KARL ASKS: Not either 206 or 309 years averaging 250 years?

Karl


07(15(09
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Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years

Gent van R.H.
In reply to this post by Palmen, KEV (Karl)
Karl Palmen wrote:

> 18*103/7 = 264.857... which is somewhat more than 250 years.
> This suggests that Robert's calculator does not simply
> multiply the cycle length by the whole number of cycles in a
> lifetime to get the cycle life time.

Of course there may be errors in my eclipse-cycle calculator but the
evidence presented so far has not yet convinced me.

If Karl, or someone else, can find four lunar or solar eclipses in a row
seperated by 1274 lunations, I will be convinced.

At the moment, my eclipse-cycle calculator predicts that you will only find
three such eclipses in a row at the most.

=======================================================
* Robert H. van Gent                                  *
* E-mail: [hidden email]                     *
* Homepage: http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/homepage.htm *
=======================================================
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Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years

Palmen, KEV (Karl)
In reply to this post by Palmen, KEV (Karl)
Dear Robert and Calendar People

-----Original Message-----
From: East Carolina University Calendar discussion List
[mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf Of Gent van R.H.
Sent: 11 December 2005 14:10
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: Solar Eclipse after 103 years


Karl Palmen wrote:

> 18*103/7 = 264.857... which is somewhat more than 250 years.
> This suggests that Robert's calculator does not simply
> multiply the cycle length by the whole number of cycles in a
> lifetime to get the cycle life time.

Of course there may be errors in my eclipse-cycle calculator but the
evidence presented so far has not yet convinced me.

If Karl, or someone else, can find four lunar or solar eclipses in a row
seperated by 1274 lunations, I will be convinced.

At the moment, my eclipse-cycle calculator predicts that you will only find
three such eclipses in a row at the most.

KARL SAYS: If I could get a full list of 18 consecutive eclipses that a 103/7 years apart (of which I have already shown 8), then we'd have

 1  2  3  4  5  6  7
 8  9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18

which suggests that Robert is correct in supposing that there is a maximum of 3 eclipses 103 years apart. Also I realise that the 18 eclipses cover 17 intervals of 103/7 years which lasts 250.14... years, which I think is exactly what Robert's calculator gives for the lifetime of that cycle.

Karl

07(15(11 till noon