Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Victor Engel
This email originated from outside ECU.

Dear Michael and Calendar People,

I've noticed that there is a significant difference in such graphs for west Texas than for most of the rest of Texas. For example, in Austin, the slope is the steepest around January/Feburary with Maximum value in August. I think that's typical for most of the state. In west Texas, however, the slope is steepest later - in March I think, and the maximum is in June.

Victor

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 3:15 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor--

Yes, but the point or region of maximum steepening-rate (aka acceleration, curvature, rate-of-change of the rate-of-change, 2nd-derivative) is of special interest, because it's the point at which the temperature or insolation can be said to take-off, to take its most rapid upward-turn.

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 4:22 PM Victor Engel <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Dear Michael and Calendar People,

I've noticed that there is a significant difference in such graphs for west Texas than for most of the rest of Texas. For example, in Austin, the slope is the steepest around January/Feburary with Maximum value in August. I think that's typical for most of the state. In west Texas, however, the slope is steepest later - in March I think, and the maximum is in June.

Victor

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 3:15 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Victor Engel
This email originated from outside ECU.

That’s called jerk. At least with position data. I don’t see why it can’t be jerk for temperature. And in Texas it’s near zero all summer. I’m also interested in variance. I think variance from average is greatest in February here.

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 6:33 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor--

Yes, but the point or region of maximum steepening-rate (aka acceleration, curvature, rate-of-change of the rate-of-change, 2nd-derivative) is of special interest, because it's the point at which the temperature or insolation can be said to take-off, to take its most rapid upward-turn.

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 4:22 PM Victor Engel <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Dear Michael and Calendar People,

I've noticed that there is a significant difference in such graphs for west Texas than for most of the rest of Texas. For example, in Austin, the slope is the steepest around January/Feburary with Maximum value in August. I think that's typical for most of the state. In west Texas, however, the slope is steepest later - in March I think, and the maximum is in June.

Victor

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 3:15 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Yes, jerk is another good word for it, because a jerk is an abrupt and brief high acceleration.
.
..and, after that acceleration around Feb 1, the increase in temperature, as shown on those graphs, tends to be very-nearly linear...no acceleration.

Certainly it's true here too, that we seem to have steady, level conditions all Summer and all Winter, with the only variation during the two transitional times inbetween,
.
Yes, as you mentioned, the temp-graphs for different Texas regions have different temp maxima snd minima, and different dates for those maxima and minima, and different steepnesses....
.
...and likewise for Texas vs Iowa.
.
But it's an interesting fact that, with all that variation in those regards, one thing that remains constant everwhere is that the temp-graph has its greatest upward-curvature (in a rising region), its greatest steepening-rate, at or very near to Feb 1.
.
So Februarius, especiallly early Februarius, is the most strongly transitional time in the Yul-Ostara quarter.
.
It's the temperature-rise's takeoff-region or takeoff-point. And, right at that takeoff-point, is where the pre-Roman Europeans had a seasonal-holiday, named Imbolc by the Celts.   ...the pre-Roman seasonal-holiday observed between Yul and Ostara.
.
9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020
.
0355 UTC

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&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&


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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Victor Engel
This email originated from outside ECU.

Well, it's certainly not the same everywhere. When I referred to west Texas, I was looking at Marfa data, but the resolution was not that great to determine jerk values very well. It's much more clearly different, though for west coast places like Los Angeles and San Diego. And, of course, it all falls apart in the tropics and then reverses in the southern hemisphere.

Victor

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 9:53 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Yes, jerk is another good word for it, because a jerk is an abrupt and brief high acceleration.
.
..and, after that acceleration around Feb 1, the increase in temperature, as shown on those graphs, tends to be very-nearly linear...no acceleration.

Certainly it's true here too, that we seem to have steady, level conditions all Summer and all Winter, with the only variation during the two transitional times inbetween,
.
Yes, as you mentioned, the temp-graphs for different Texas regions have different temp maxima snd minima, and different dates for those maxima and minima, and different steepnesses....
.
...and likewise for Texas vs Iowa.
.
But it's an interesting fact that, with all that variation in those regards, one thing that remains constant everwhere is that the temp-graph has its greatest upward-curvature (in a rising region), its greatest steepening-rate, at or very near to Feb 1.
.
So Februarius, especiallly early Februarius, is the most strongly transitional time in the Yul-Ostara quarter.
.
It's the temperature-rise's takeoff-region or takeoff-point. And, right at that takeoff-point, is where the pre-Roman Europeans had a seasonal-holiday, named Imbolc by the Celts.   ...the pre-Roman seasonal-holiday observed between Yul and Ostara.
.
9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020
.
0355 UTC

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&


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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Amos Shapir-2
This email originated from outside ECU.

Hi Victor, Michael and calendar people,

Insolation is not the only factor affecting temperatures.  Because water heats up and cools down much slower than land, the prevailing temperatures at a particular location on land also depends a lot about how it relates to an ocean: How far it is, in which direction, and what are the average winds to / from the ocean at any time of the year.

For example, the West Coast, where there is usually ocean breeze, is usually much colder in Spring and much hotter in Autumn than inland regions.

On Wed, Feb 19, 2020 at 6:44 AM Victor Engel <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Well, it's certainly not the same everywhere. When I referred to west Texas, I was looking at Marfa data, but the resolution was not that great to determine jerk values very well. It's much more clearly different, though for west coast places like Los Angeles and San Diego. And, of course, it all falls apart in the tropics and then reverses in the southern hemisphere.

Victor

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 9:53 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Yes, jerk is another good word for it, because a jerk is an abrupt and brief high acceleration.
.
..and, after that acceleration around Feb 1, the increase in temperature, as shown on those graphs, tends to be very-nearly linear...no acceleration.

Certainly it's true here too, that we seem to have steady, level conditions all Summer and all Winter, with the only variation during the two transitional times inbetween,
.
Yes, as you mentioned, the temp-graphs for different Texas regions have different temp maxima snd minima, and different dates for those maxima and minima, and different steepnesses....
.
...and likewise for Texas vs Iowa.
.
But it's an interesting fact that, with all that variation in those regards, one thing that remains constant everwhere is that the temp-graph has its greatest upward-curvature (in a rising region), its greatest steepening-rate, at or very near to Feb 1.
.
So Februarius, especiallly early Februarius, is the most strongly transitional time in the Yul-Ostara quarter.
.
It's the temperature-rise's takeoff-region or takeoff-point. And, right at that takeoff-point, is where the pre-Roman Europeans had a seasonal-holiday, named Imbolc by the Celts.   ...the pre-Roman seasonal-holiday observed between Yul and Ostara.
.
9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020
.
0355 UTC

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&




--
Amos Shapir
 
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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor & Amos:
.
Victor:
.
Yes of course it goes without saying that it's opposite south of the equator, and that we're talking mainly or only about non-tropical and maybe non-polar places.
.
Amos:
.
Seasonal temperature time-lag due to the land's and water's heat-capacity
.
Cloud-cover
.
Ocean currents and air-movmements
.
So yes, there are certainly other influnces, other than insolation. But insolation is of course at the basis of seasonal temperature-changes, and the temperatures closely follow insolation.
.
The roughly Feb 1 temperature takeoff-point is consistent with the January insolation takeoff-point.
.
Tables that give the many-years average for each month's average daily high and average daily low can be used to construct an approximate continuous temperature-curve for each quarter.  Of course it predicts gradual change.  But I found that, where i reside, the temperature during Spring remains colder than what that calculated warming-curve predicts.  And then, at a certain point, there's a sudden rise in temperatures.
.
Maybe  the gradually-building nearby high wasn't strong enough to ward-off the polar air, but, at a certain time, it became strong enough, and the polar incursion stopped, and the temperature relatively abruptly increased.
--------------------------------
An approximate inferred temperature curve can be calculated from the tabulated month-averages by the fact that a month's average temperature is the integral with respect to time, of the temperature during that month, divided by the number of days in the month.
.
So I wrote a polynomial function to represent the temperature, and integrated it, and set its integral over that month equal to the tabulated monthly-average multiplied by the number of days in the month.
.
I did that for each month in a quarter, giving me a set of simultaneous equations that could be solved for the constant coefficients in that polynomial function.
.
...giving a polynomial function for an inferred temperature-curve over that quarter, consistent with the tabulated monthly average temperatures.
.
Of course a temperature-curve based on actual daily observations is much more reliable than one that is caclulated from tabulated monthly-averages.    ...as I found out.

Doing the problem with 3 months at a time, I had 3 simultaneous equations, to find 3 unknowns--the 3 constant coefficients of a quadratic polynomial.

The 2nd derivative of a quadratic function is constant, and so a quadratic wouldn't help in finding when the 2nd derivative has its max. 

For that, it would be necessary to look at more months at a time, for more simultaneous equations, to find more coefficients, for a polynomial of degree greater than 2.

Thereby, one could find the max 2nd derivative in the Yul-Ostara quarter, for an polynomila-inferred temperature curve based on tabulated average monthly temperatures.

But,as I said, there's no need to find that approximate inferred answer, when there are available temperature line-graphs based on actual daily observations.

-------------------------------------------
By the way, it probably isn't a coincidence that Imbolc is observed at February 1st.    The beginning date of the Roman Februa festivities period (later made into a month) was likely based on the same temperature takeoff-point as is the Celtic Imbolc.
---------------------------------------------
9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th




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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor--

I've read that European-culture Pagan organizations in temperate places souith of the equator observe the same 8 seasonal-holidays as the north-of-the-equator European-culture Pagans, and with the same names--but at times appropriate for their part of the Earth.   ...at dates opposite in our Roman Calendar.

That makes perfect sense to me, and is in keeping with the meanings of those 8 seasonal-holidays.

9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020

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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor & Amos--

But, as you pointed out the different heat-capacities of water and land must affect the seasonal timelags north and south of the equator.

And so the dates of the 4 mid-quarter pre-Roman European seasonal-holidays (called "Earth Holidays") might appropriately be different (a bit later probably) from those north of the Equator.

9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020


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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Victor Engel
This email originated from outside ECU.

Not just land/water differences, but don't forget Earth is closer to the sun in northern winter than southern winter.

Victor

On Wed, Feb 19, 2020 at 2:29 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor & Amos--

But, as you pointed out the different heat-capacities of water and land must affect the seasonal timelags north and south of the equator.

And so the dates of the 4 mid-quarter pre-Roman European seasonal-holidays (called "Earth Holidays") might appropriately be different (a bit later probably) from those north of the Equator.

9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020


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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Not just land/water differences, but don't forget Earth is closer to the sun in northern winter than southern winter.

True, and I didn't take that into account when calculating the insolation at a particular geographic-latitude and Solar ecliptic-longitude.  It would complicate the calculation, but neglecting it makes my result more approximate than I realized.

Of course I also neglected cloudiness, which is unpredictable.

And I neglected atmospheric attenuation. That's often neglected, and the times of day when the atmospheric-attenuation is greatest are the times of day when the insolation is low anyway, due to the greater non-perpendicularity of the rays, with respect to the ground.

9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020
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Re: "Jerk" - Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Litmus A Freeman
In reply to this post by Victor Engel
This email originated from outside ECU.

3♓20 UCC

gonna resist the obvious but very childish joke opportunity here! :-D

-----------------------
Litmus A Freeman
Creator of the Universal Celestial Calendar (UCC)
www.universalcelestialcalendar.com
On 2/19/20 12:58 AM, Victor Engel wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

That’s called jerk. At least with position data. I don’t see why it can’t be jerk for temperature. And in Texas it’s near zero all summer. I’m also interested in variance. I think variance from average is greatest in February here.

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 6:33 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor--

Yes, but the point or region of maximum steepening-rate (aka acceleration, curvature, rate-of-change of the rate-of-change, 2nd-derivative) is of special interest, because it's the point at which the temperature or insolation can be said to take-off, to take its most rapid upward-turn.

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 4:22 PM Victor Engel <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Dear Michael and Calendar People,

I've noticed that there is a significant difference in such graphs for west Texas than for most of the rest of Texas. For example, in Austin, the slope is the steepest around January/Feburary with Maximum value in August. I think that's typical for most of the state. In west Texas, however, the slope is steepest later - in March I think, and the maximum is in June.

Victor

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 3:15 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

image.png
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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Victor Engel
In reply to this post by Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Have you looked at the end of autumn as a possible place for maximum jerk? At least here falling temperatures in autumn descend more rapidly than rising temperatures in spring rise. So it seems likely that the peak value for jerk is at the transition from autumn to winter rather than winter to spring.

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 9:53 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Yes, jerk is another good word for it, because a jerk is an abrupt and brief high acceleration.
.
..and, after that acceleration around Feb 1, the increase in temperature, as shown on those graphs, tends to be very-nearly linear...no acceleration.

Certainly it's true here too, that we seem to have steady, level conditions all Summer and all Winter, with the only variation during the two transitional times inbetween,
.
Yes, as you mentioned, the temp-graphs for different Texas regions have different temp maxima snd minima, and different dates for those maxima and minima, and different steepnesses....
.
...and likewise for Texas vs Iowa.
.
But it's an interesting fact that, with all that variation in those regards, one thing that remains constant everwhere is that the temp-graph has its greatest upward-curvature (in a rising region), its greatest steepening-rate, at or very near to Feb 1.
.
So Februarius, especiallly early Februarius, is the most strongly transitional time in the Yul-Ostara quarter.
.
It's the temperature-rise's takeoff-region or takeoff-point. And, right at that takeoff-point, is where the pre-Roman Europeans had a seasonal-holiday, named Imbolc by the Celts.   ...the pre-Roman seasonal-holiday observed between Yul and Ostara.
.
9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020
.
0355 UTC

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&


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Re: Another Cedar Rapids temperature line-graph

Michael Ossipoff
This email originated from outside ECU.

Victor--

Yes, but I'm more interested in the waxing half of the year, and the Solar astronomical landmarks during this waxing-time. (Winter-Solstice to Summer-Solstice)

I should add that, when I said that insolation has a maximum acceleration around January 25th, that was based on an error.

It wasn't a wrong formula or a formula-mis-copying error; it was a variable-name error.

So I retract what I said about the insolation having a maximum acceleration at a time after the Winter-Solstice.

10 Th
Pisces 9th
Februarius 27th



On Thu, Feb 27, 2020 at 9:48 AM Victor Engel <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Have you looked at the end of autumn as a possible place for maximum jerk? At least here falling temperatures in autumn descend more rapidly than rising temperatures in spring rise. So it seems likely that the peak value for jerk is at the transition from autumn to winter rather than winter to spring.

On Tue, Feb 18, 2020 at 9:53 PM Michael Ossipoff <[hidden email]> wrote:
This email originated from outside ECU.

Yes, jerk is another good word for it, because a jerk is an abrupt and brief high acceleration.
.
..and, after that acceleration around Feb 1, the increase in temperature, as shown on those graphs, tends to be very-nearly linear...no acceleration.

Certainly it's true here too, that we seem to have steady, level conditions all Summer and all Winter, with the only variation during the two transitional times inbetween,
.
Yes, as you mentioned, the temp-graphs for different Texas regions have different temp maxima snd minima, and different dates for those maxima and minima, and different steepnesses....
.
...and likewise for Texas vs Iowa.
.
But it's an interesting fact that, with all that variation in those regards, one thing that remains constant everwhere is that the temp-graph has its greatest upward-curvature (in a rising region), its greatest steepening-rate, at or very near to Feb 1.
.
So Februarius, especiallly early Februarius, is the most strongly transitional time in the Yul-Ostara quarter.
.
It's the temperature-rise's takeoff-region or takeoff-point. And, right at that takeoff-point, is where the pre-Roman Europeans had a seasonal-holiday, named Imbolc by the Celts.   ...the pre-Roman seasonal-holiday observed between Yul and Ostara.
.
9 W
Pisces 1st
Februarius 19th, 2020
.
0355 UTC

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&